Service Plays Thursday 10/9/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WILD BILL

NL & AL Championships

Phillies -120 (2 units)
Red Sox -155 (1 unit)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL
At 8:15pm our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies. If the regular season were to dictate the outcome of this NLCS, then the Phillies would be heading to the World Series to face the winner of the Tampa-Boston series, and they would need all four of their home games to do it. That's because during the month of August, these two teams met in their only eight contests of the season, with the Dodgers taking four straight games in LA from August 8-11, and then Philadelphia returning the favor in four straight at Citizens Bank Park from August 22-25. But as we've seen in the American League with the Anaheim-Boston series, the postseason does not always go according to plan, so don't expect the Dodgers to roll over and play dead in Thursday's opener in Philly. After all, in Philly's first game against Milwaukee with lefty Cole Hamels on the mound, Philly was very lucky to escape with a 3-1 win which most observers would say it didn't deserve. It's somewhat amazing that Philly and Milwaukee made it to the playoffs when you consider their team batting averages for the year were .255 and .253 respectively. By contrast, the Dodgers and Cubs had team BAs of .264 and .278, with the Dodgers' average improving significantly later in the season after the acquisition of Mr. Clutch, Manny Ramirez. Clearly, Philly will have to deal with some much more potent bats than it did in its series with Milwaukee, and also a much better opening starter in Derek Lowe than it had to face in the last series' first game. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

Clemson 24 - WAKE FOREST 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Both rested off wrenching losses. Normally dependable Wake QB Skinner tossed 4 picks in loss to Navy, & Deacs can't run (61 RYpg last 3). First RG for Tigers who are 0-6 ATS by 60 pts, & Harper only 3/5. But Davis & Spiller are rolling, so a mild Clemson call.

HOUSTON 34 - Uab 27 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Blazers must regroup off last-second loss to Memphis. Webb's 93 RYs & 235 PYs (4 TDs) were a pleasant change for formerly 116th "O". Coog QB Keenum now 19/5, & note piling up >620 yds vs ECaro. But UH just 1-8 ATS, with upsets in last 3 affairs. Points the play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9
*WAKE FOREST 23 - Clemson 16—Each team had last week off to try to
shake any lingering effects from discouraging home losses in previous game. Edge to Clemson’s speedy cast of offensive skill performers, as Wake RB Josh Adams (953 YR & 12 TDs in 2007, just 151 & 2 TY) mired in soph slump so far. Still, rebuilt Tiger OL keeping sr. QB Harper (just 3 TDP) from recapturing LY’s form, too. Deacons’ opportunistic defense & special teams (nation-leading 52 takeaways last 1+ seasons!) tip scales in favor of host. CABLE TV—ESPN (07-CLEM. 44-W. For. 10...C.25-21 C.34/145 W.37/83 C.27/36/0/266 W.24/35/1/204 C.0 W.0) (07-CLEM. -9' 44-10 06-Clem. -16 27-17 05-WFU +6' 31-27...SR: Clemson 56-16-1)



*HOUSTON 45 - Uab 32—Scary matchup for depth-shy UAB defense
(allowing 466 ypg), as there’s little doubt prolific Houston’s quick-trigger soph QB Keenum (68%, 19 TDP & only 5 ints.) will shred poor-covering Blazer secondary. Cougs (no covers last 6 as favorite) also frequently find it hard to get stops, however, so visitor should have enough weapons to hang if versatile but TO-prone jr. QB Webb avoids giveaways.
(07-Houston 49-UAB 10...H.33-12 H.59/335 U.18/26 H.21/34/0/205 U.12/34/4/198 H.1 U.0) (07-Houston -13 49-10...SR: UAB 4-2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

(901) LA Dodgers
(902) PHI Phillies
Take "Over"
The Dodgers have peaked at the right time and they swept right through the Cubs to the NLCS. The addition of Casey Blake and Manny Ramirez has been the catalyst to a stagnant Dodgers' offense. Manny has more post season home runs than anyone and they continued against the Cubs. But most unexpected has been the return of Rafael Furcal, who missed 122 games with a back injury. He has been the spark plug who has led the Dodgers top of the lineup and his return could be the final piece to the puzzle. Both Lowe and Hamels have been very good this year, but with these lineups and power for both clubs we look for an offensive series. The Cubs had some of the best starters in the league this year and they couldn't keep the Dodgers bats down - so we don't see the Phillies fairing much better. Both teams will get their runs here, take the OVER in game one!!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty had no play Wednesday but likes the Dodgers and Red Sox (series) and Clemson tonight. The deficit is 15 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HONDO

October 9, 2008
Now Hondo knows how Anthony Affrunti, the Post's Puny Pony Picker, was able to shed those 19 pounds - it's all that coin he forks over at the track. Mr. Aitch lost again yesterday at Belmont with the slim picker's slim pickin's as Open Sleigh in the fourth and Donna's Sandee in the seventh showed no interest in his earnings-enhancement program.

Tonight, with his collection of dead presidents down to 475 mcbrides, he's climbing aboard the Phillie bandwagon, Game 1 and the NLCS. Ten units apiece.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS ADVISORS

Clemson (3-2, 0-3 ATS) at (21) Wake Forest (3-1, 2-2 ATS)

Wake Forest plays host to Clemson in Winston-Salem, N.C., with both ACC teams coming off bye weeks – and both aiming to get over upset losses.

The Demon Deacons were dealt a stunning 24-17 home loss two weeks ago against Navy as an overwhelming 17-point chalk, halting a six-game SU winning streak dating to last season (5-1 ATS). Wake Forest trailed 17-0 at halftime and couldn’t draw closer than a touchdown in the second half, and though the Deacons didn’t lose the total-yardage battle by much (343-313), they allowed 292 rushing yards, leading to a time-of-possession deficit of more than 13 minutes.

The Tigers also stumbled at home in their last outing, losing 20-17 to Maryland as an 11-point favorite, ending a three-game win streak. Clemson dominated much of the stat sheet, posting a 372-295 yardage edge – including 221-123 on the ground – and a more than five-minute edge in time of possession. But the Tigers lost the turnover battle 3-0 and blew a 17-6 halftime lead, getting outscored 14-0 in the second half.

Wake Forest is on a 4-1 ATS run in this series (2-3 SU), all as an underdog, though Clemson rolled 44-10 at home last year laying nine points. The home team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

The Demon Deacons are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye, but they sport ATS streaks of 9-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 8-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 in ACC play and 14-4 against winning teams. Conversely, the Tigers have failed to cover in six consecutive games and are on further pointspread slides of 0-4 against winning teams, 1-7 after a non-cover, 1-5 after a SU loss and 3-7-1 coming off a bye.

The over is on a 6-1 roll in this rivalry. However, the under is 10-4 in Wake’s last 14 home games, and the under for Clemson is on stretches of 6-0 overall, 5-2 on the road and 11-4 inside the conference.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST


UAB (1-5, 2-2-1 ATS) at Houston (2-3, 1-3 ATS)

Houston will look to build on an upset victory when it welcomes Alabama-Birmingham to town for a Conference USA matchup.

The Cougars, coming off a bye week, rolled over East Carolina 41-24 two weeks ago as a 10½-point road underdog. QB Case Keenum (36 of 44, 399 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) was terrific, and Houston added another 222 yards on the ground to post a whopping 621-275 advantage in total offense.

The Blazers, who are set to play their second straight Thursday contest, lost to Memphis 33-30 a week ago on a last-second field goal, pushing as a three-point road pup. It was a nearly even game, with UAB outgained by just 20 yards (456-336) but finishing with a slight rushing edge (221-192).

Houston is 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three meetings between these two, posting a 49-10 road blowout last year giving 13 points. The favorite is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, and the straight-up winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last six meetings dating to 1999.

Despite the Cougars’ upset at East Carolina, they are still on pointspread dips of 1-8 overall, 0-6 at home, 0-5 after a SU win, 1-5 following a spread-cover and 1-4 in conference play. On the flip side, the Blazers are on positive ATS runs of 4-1-1 against losing teams and 7-3 coming off a bye, but they remain just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight C-USA tilts.

The under for Houston is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-1 in conference play and 6-2 coming off the bye, and for UAB, the under is on runs of 9-4-1 overall, 6-2 in roadies and 7-3 after a bye. Finally, the last two meetings between these squads have stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

Phillies

Houston

Clemson Under

NHL
San Jose
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Phil/Dodg Under

Houston

Clemson
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Armvin Sports Nhl

10/9/2008 Anaheim 130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET- NCAA


10/9/2008 (103) CLEMSON at (104) WAKE FOREST
The best teams in college football, or those you should be looking
to back as favorites in big games, are those with offensive balance.
Wake Forest doesn’t have it. The Demon Deacons are struggling to
get anything going on the ground this year, averaging just 85 YPG and
2.4 YPR. This is a big sore spot for a team with BCS aspirations, and
has a lot to do with why they are only putting up 8.2 PPG in the first
half of their first five contests. Here they will be playing as a favorite
against Clemson for the first time since prior to at least ’92, a span of
16 games or more. Furthermore, in the last two seasons when Wake
should have been more competitive with Clemson, it has resulted in
wins by Clemson of 34 and 10 points. The Tigers DO have that key
balanced attack, averaging 5 YPR and 7.6 PYA. That balance will be enough for HC Tommy Bowden’s team to get out of Wake
with a crucial win on Thursday night.
Play: Clemson +2.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NSA

20* Clemson
10* clm/wf over
10* Uab

10* Dodgers
10* lad/phi over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(105) UAB
(106) Houston
Take "(106) Houston"
Houston is only 2-3 through their first five games, but they're better than their record shows. They gave Oklahoma State a decent battle before getting run over. Their loss to Air Force was easy to forgive due to the distractions of the hurricane and the same holds true for their follow up effort against Colorado State. I thought the Cougars showed what they're made of in an impressive upset of East Carolina. Now Houston plays with extra rest against a weak UAB entry that's really pathetic defensively. Look for Houston to roll in this game, and I believe laying the points is the way to play.

 

[ymmit2nd]

Thu, 10/09/08 - 7:45 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
triple-dime bet103 Clemson 3.0 (-120) Bodog vs 104 Wake Forest
Analysis:
The Clemson Tigers rarely find themselves as underdogs in regular season games against current ACC competition - but when they do - WATCH OUT.



Clemson is a PERFECT 9-0 ATS in their last nine games in this situation - winning seven of those games SU! The Tigers blew an 11-point lead over a good Maryland team (Leave their Virgiina loss out) and have now had a week to sit around and get focused on the task at hand: Not losing a second ACC game in as many weeks.



Head coach Tommy Bowden is 5-2 in his career against Jim Grobe of Wake Forest and Clemson is the ONLY TEAM to defeat the Deacons the past two years. Why's that of significant? Mainly all of Clemson's players have been a part of the past two victories - including their entire backfield and QB.



Clemson hasn't been an underdog in at least the past 10 meetings and have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.



The Tigers have a balanced attack - but a HUGE MISMATCH presents itself on the ground, as Wake Forest ranks 114th in that nation.



Wake QB Riley Skinner will find it tough to bounce back from a five turnover performance (3 INTs) against a Clemson secondary that's 8th in the country with eight interceptions.



Don't worry about the negative talk around the nation about Clemson's QB. Cullen Harper is actually averaging more yards per pass attempt (7.49) than he did last year (6.93). He's also completing passes at a higher percentage.



Finally a very interest angle: Ranked teams at home that are favorites of a TD or less are 0-6 ATS this year - failing to cover by more than 9 points! The spread opened at a PK and has moved to -2.5/3.....I don't think so - take the points!

 

[ymmit2nd]

Thu, 10/09/08 - 7:45 PMKing Creole | CFB Side
double-dime bet103 Clemson 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 104 Wake Forest
Analysis: 2** Best Bet on: CLEMSON TIGERS plus the points vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons / 7:30pm ET / ESPN TV
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

Both ACC teams come into Thursday night game on a 2-week "STEAM". They each took last week off after dropping games as a FAVORITE two weeks ago. As a result, we have plenty of dynamite ATS ammo that indicates the DOG (Clemson) is the play. As of Wednesday night, the line in this game was Wake Forest -2.5 points. An interesting side note so far in 2008 is this: Home favorites of -2.5 points EXACTLY are 1-6 ATS so far this season. So if the line at KICKOFF is exactly -2.5 (at most sportsbooks), we'll be backed up by a 86% System.

First, let's run through the UPSET losses that both teams come in off.
0-10 ATS since 1995 for ALL Conference favorites of 9 < points off a SU loss as a favorite of -16 > points. Wake Forest was a fav of -17 in their upset loss to Navy, so they indeed qualify in this rare System.

24-9 ATS since 1999 for ALL Conference road underdogs of 13 < points off a SU conference loss in which they were a home fav of -10 or more. If our doggie scored 17 or less points in that upset loss, the results improve to 10-1 ATS. Clemson lost to Maryland 20-17 as a fav of -11 pts two weeks ago. So we have another qualifier. We also note that these conference dogs tend to score (and allow) a lot of points, as the "OVER" is 9-1-1 O/U in this spot.

When Navy burst Wake's bubble two weeks ago, it was the first loss of the season for the Demon Deacons.
0-6 ATS since 2000 for ALL Conference home favorites in Game 5 or greater who lost their first game of the season as a FAVORITE.

Based on the fact that BOTH teams are coming in off a week of REST, that leads to some interesting queries as well.
5-18 ATS since 1990 for ALL Conference home favs playing with REST and a SU loss (Wake Forest)... vs any opponent also playing with REST and a SU loss (CLEMSON). Conference favs of LESS than (<) 10 points are a PERFECT 0-11 ATS in this situation.

Clemson is an OUTSTANDING underdog in the ACC. In the last 5 season, the Tigers are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS as a conference road underdog. On the other hand, Wake Forest is a LOUSY favorite against pissed-off opponents. The Demon Deacons are 5-16 ATS since 1980 as conference home favs against an opp off a SUATS loss. Within this 5-16 ATS set, we note that Wake is a PERFECT 0-3 ATS if they are off a SUATS loss of their own (and they are).

We'll also enjoy a very 'HIGH'-scoring series history when we play a little bit on the OVER. We have the benefit on Thursday of a very nice low OU line.... based on previous matchups. The current line of 43.5 is 6 points LESS than the averages. In the last 7 years, the average OU line in the Wake/Clemson series is 49.4. And the average combined points scored is 56.5. That's more than a TD (+7.4) in OU line value based on the history of this series. When you factor in Thursday's (relatively) low OU line, one can see the obvious value (up to 13 points).

Final score:
CLEMSON 30
WAKE FOREST 20

 

[EagleFan]

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY
10 Dime Clemson

5 Dime Dodgers in Game 1



10 Dime Dodgers in Series



FREE - OVER Houston/UAB

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

THUSDAY Phillies w/ Hamel

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Thursday: Take UAB/HOUSTON OVER the total of 67